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Which Malls Will Fare Best, 15 Retailers Making Moves and 5 Trends that Defined Q3

October 20, 2022

Which Malls Will Fare Best

Not all properties are created equal as the industry recovers to prepandemic levels of activity. The landlords that will reap the rewards of recovery will be those with well-positioned, diverse properties generating strong cash flow, Morgan Stanley executive director and head of U.S. REITs and commercial real estate research Ronald Kamdem wrote in a recent note to investors. Expanding retailers and other kinds of tenants will flock to those properties at the expense of others, which will transform to other uses, he said. About 70% of the existing malls and 90% of the existing open-air centers in the U.S. are on the right track, Kamdem said.

It's not the first time observers have predicted rationalization for malls in particular. In early 2018 Credit Suisse predicted that 25% of malls would be closed by 2022. The reality is that there were 1,146 in 2018 and now there are 1,148.

Among the malls adapting to a changing landscape are those in PREIT’s portfolio, according to the company’s CEO Joseph Coradino. The landlord has proactively replaced many anchors with new tenants and new users to stay fresh and exciting to consumers, he said on the firm’s second-quarter earnings call. “In the past decade, we’ve increased the space dedicated to off price and fast fashion by 250%, providing more cost-efficient options for our customers during periods of rising costs,” he said. For example at the company’s Moorestown Mall in Moorestown, New Jersey, the landlord redeveloped an empty Macy’s into a value retail hub, including HomeSense, Sierra, Five Below and Michaels.

15 Retailers Making Moves

Beyond Yoga: After jeans giant Levi Strauss acquired the online athleisure brand, it’s opening its first physical stores. A unit recently opened in Santa Monica, California, and another will open in Irvine, California this fall.

Coco Republic: The Australian furniture brand opened a 53,000-square-foot, three-level U.S. flagship in San Francisco’s Union Square. The company plans to open more California stores soon.

GU: Fast-fashion chain Uniqlo’s dressier sister brand opened its first store outside Asia, in New York City’s SoHo district.

Hanky Panky: The female-founded lingerie brand famous for its thongs opened a 600-square-foot store in New York City’s Greenwich Village, its first physical store, and plans 10 more by 2025.

Homesense: The TJX-owned retailer will launch its 40th store and first Florida location, a 30,000-square-foot unit at Sarasota’s UTC, in November.

The Kroger Co.: The two reportedly largest U.S. grocery operators plan to merge in a $24.6 billion deal. The Kroger Co. will buy Albertsons Cos. to create a behemoth with 5,000 stores under several banners. The companies overlap in several markets, largely in the western U.S. The deal would spin off 100 to 375 stores into a separate company.

Love, Bonito: The Singapore-based women’s apparel brand plans to open its first U.S. stores in 2023 after an IPO. Founded in 2010, Lovebonito Holdings operates 16 stores in Southeast Asia.

Pura Vida: The artisan-made bracelets, accessories and apparel seller, which is owned by Vera Bradley, will open its first Arizona store, at SanTan Village in Gilbert.

River Island: The U.K. fast-fashion chain plans a U.S. expansion, saying online demand has soared in California, New York, Texas and Florida.

Rowan: The upscale piercing studio opened a unit at Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota.

Save the Duck: The Italian sustainable outerwear brand expects to open as many as 15 new U.S stores in the next two years.

Showcase: The Canadian-based health, beauty and home products retailer is expanding its 25-store U.S. presence with its first Illinois store, at Schaumburg’s Woodfield Mall. An additional Chicago-area store is in the works.

Sierra: The TJX outdoors gear and activewear chain opened its 66th store — its first in Richmond, Virginia — a 14,500-square-foot unit at Short Pump Town Center.

Terez: The women and children’s fashion brand worked with Leap to open its first physical store, a 1,600-square-foot unit on New York City’s Upper East Side.

5 Trends That Defined Q3

The U.S. retail vacancy rate is 4.3%, according to Lee & Associates’ third-quarter wrap-up. That’s the lowest in 15 years, according to the property services firm. Vacancy rates are on a downward trajectory as brands new and old keep opening new physical stores, as foot traffic escalates and as shoppers keep spending despite rising interest rates and inflation.

It seems the marketplaces industry is renovating and reinventing its way out of a hole created by tenant bankruptcies, empty storefronts and a glut of enclosed mall space. And while no two marketplaces are alike, these five across-the-industry trends stood out in Lee & Associates’ report, providing a look at how the fourth quarter and 2023 will treat the sector.

1. Leasing Momentum Is Picking Up.

In the U.S., brick-and-mortar retail sales pushed to a new record of $382 billion in August, an increase of nearly 25% over pre-pandemic levels. Retailers leased 14.8 million square feet more than they vacated in the third quarter, bringing the total net aborption for the first three quarters of this year to 54 million square feet, roughly equal to the same period last year, according to Lee & Associates.

2. Landlords Are Raising Rents.

U.S. retail rental rates have grown 4.2% year over year for the first three quarters of 2022, significantly higher than the 2.5% annual average for 2013 to 2019. Average asking rents hit a record $23 per square foot for the first three quarters of 2022, the biggest jump in more than a decade.

3. New Development Is Restrained.

Despite increasing demand for space, neither developers nor banks seem keen to back speculative retail projects. Those that are under construction chiefly are freestanding general retail properties pre-leased to qualified tenants. Only 18.2 million square feet of retail space has been added to U.S. inventory year to date. That’s slightly less than for the same period last year. Meanwhile, construction starts hit a 15-year low of about 8 million square feet in the second quarter.

4. Southern and Southwestern States Are the Hottest Zones for Retailer Expansion.

Retail development is following population growth in the South and Southwest. Of the 10 metros with the most new inventory, four are in Florida — Orlando, Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Tampa — and four are in Texas — Houston, San Antonio, Austin and Dallas.

5. Investors Are Moving Money into Retail.

All types of property investors are noticing the improvement in the retail sector, and they’re starting to reallocate funds from other sectors into single-tenant net lease assets and neighborhood shopping centers in large gateway markets like New York, Los Angeles and Chicago and high-growth metros like Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix and Houston.

By Brannon Boswell

Executive Editor, Commerce + Communities Today

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