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Spending on retail construction should start rebounding in the second half of 2025, and 2026 will be the year of positive year-over-year growth. That’s the word from Ed Sullivan, chief economist at the Portland Cement Association, a trade group for U.S. cement manufacturers. The growth would follow a period when high interest rates and other factors weakened construction spending. When the tally comes in for 2024, Sullivan expects spending on retail construction to have tumbled more than 12% from 2023.
As declining interest rates and a strengthening labor market boost retailers’ net operating incomes, construction spending in the retail sector should take a turn for the better in the latter part of 2025, he said. However, Sullivan added, 2025 likely will end with a small annual decline in spending on retail construction. “In 2026, retail construction spending is expected to grow,” said Sullivan.
Heitman and CenterCal Properties have acquired Northern California’s The Streets of Brentwood Photo courtesy of CenterCal Properties
The lack of retail construction of late, however, is one reason commercial real estate asset manager Heitman is bullish on open-air lifestyle centers. Heitman and CenterCal Properties recently bought The Streets of Brentwood, a 358,700-square-foot open-air center in Northern California. The East Bay Times reported a sale price of $75.9 million. In an announcement about the acquisition, Heitman portfolio manager Gordon Black said: “Open-air lifestyle centers have demonstrated strong operating fundamentals [since] the COVID-19 pandemic. These fundamentals are further benefiting from minimal new supply and sustained demand from retailers, a trend we believe will continue.”
The property opened in 2008 in the San Francisco Bay Area suburb of Brentwood. Tenants include AMC Theatres, DSW, Sprouts Farmers Market and Ulta Beauty.
The site of the demolished San Jacinto Mall in Baytown, Texas, is transforming into a mixed-use development with retail, restaurant and residential components. Rendering courtesy of Fidelis
Mall redevelopments in the U.S. are ushering in a new age of hubs for shopping, dining, working, playing and gathering. JLL’s Future Vision: Prepare Yourself for the Future of Retail report said that going forward, shopping destinations may lean even more toward mixed-use elements. “Retail could become less concentrated in specific zones,” the report predicted, “and instead sprinkled throughout the built environment.”
“ICSC rebranded more than three years ago in recognition that its members are behind not only shopping centers but also the broader marketplaces and spaces where consumers shop, dine, work, play and gather,” said ICSC executive vice president and chief marketing and communications officer Rae Logsdon. “All the uses people have for visiting spaces will continue to meld to create vibrant communities.”
At mall redevelopments, the trend is already well underway. JLL found that almost half, 47.6%, of redeveloped malls in the U.S. include at least three uses and that a little over half, 52.4%, feature multifamily. “And unlike today, where many retail chains stamp out repetitive store prototypes across the landscape,” the report added, “retail spaces could adapt to the needs of each local community, thanks to the power of AI design fed by volumes of customer data.”
How Retail and Multifamily Work Together
How Retail and Office Work Together
How Retail and Hotel Work Together
The Search for Space: Stores Have Loosened Their Cookie-Cutter Prototypes
Image credit: New York City Hall
If New York City’s iconic Fifth Avenue had a theme song, it might be the holiday classic Silver Bells. Every day, Fifth Avenue’s “city sidewalks, busy sidewalks” teem with pedestrians who patronize some of the world’s glitziest retailers. Now, political and business leaders want to make Fifth Avenue’s sidewalks even more welcoming. In mid-October, officials unveiled a $350 million plan to convert 20 blocks of Fifth Avenue into a walkable thoroughfare inspired by Paris’ Champs-Élysées, Tokyo’s Ginza and similar urban districts. Planned improvements include widening sidewalks, reducing the number of vehicle lanes from five to three and adding more than 200 trees. Luxury retailers that operate stores along Fifth Avenue include Bergdorf Goodman, Harry Winston, Louis Vuitton, Rolex and Saks Fifth Avenue.
Home goods retailer Bed Bath & Beyond, which closed all its stores in 2023 after filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, is staging a brick-and-mortar comeback. A week after it announced a $40 million investment in The Container Store that will include carved-out store space for co-branded products, Bed Bath & Beyond parent Beyond Inc. has named Kirkland’s the exclusive licensee and operator for new, small-format Bed Bath & Beyond stores.
Each new “neighborhood” store will be as many as 15,000 square feet. That compares with an average of 30,000 square feet for Bed Bath & Beyond’s shuttered locations. Beyond Inc., which still sells Bed Bath & Beyond merchandise online, is investing $25 million in Kirkland’s, a home decor and furnishings chain.
Richard Traub, a real estate partner at law firm Smith Gambrell & Russell, believes landlords will be eager to lease space for new Bed Bath & Beyond stores. “Before its demise, Bed Bath & Beyond was a leading anchor in the retail world. Assuming it has learned from its mistakes, it would be an attractive tenant in nearly any center,” Traub said. “I would expect many landlords to be attracted to an updated, modern home goods concept that is ready to sell in the world of modern retailing.”
Meanwhile, a former Bed Bath & Beyond subsidiary’s own attempted physical-store comeback has fizzled. BuyBuy Baby closed 115 stores amid the Bed Bath & Beyond bankruptcy, according to USA Today, while Dream on Me, whose products BuyBuyBaby sells, acquired the chain’s intellectual property rights and the leases for 11 of those stores. Dream on Me reopened those 11 stores in November 2023, but the Amherst, New York, store has since closed, and BuyBuy Baby recently announced it will close the other 10 stores by the end of this year and switch to an online-only sales model.
And Denny’s, weighed down by weak sales, will shutter 50 underperforming locations in 2024 and 100 in 2025, CNN reported. As of Sept. 25, the Denny’s brand had 1,525 restaurants.
It’s the end of a retail era: Kmart, once America’s second-largest retailer, shuttered its remaining full-size store in the continental U.S. on Oct. 20. Since opening in 1999, the store had served the town of Bridgehampton on New York’s Long Island. Target — which assumed the Kmart lease several years ago, according to Long Island Business News — is expected to occupy the 89,935-square-foot space in 2026.
Kmart emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2003 and merged with Sears, once America’s largest retailer, two years later in a $12.3 billion deal. But neither retailer ever regained their footing in the face of intense competition.
By John Egan
Contributor, Commerce + Communities Today
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