This November, voters in 11 states will elect a new governor. And of these states, eight will have a new face in the governor’s seat, regardless of which party wins.
A new class of governors means new approaches to policies that impact small businesses and commercial property owners. Governors have typically taken a leading role in fiscal and public safety initiatives. For example, this year, Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen (R) and Colorado Governor Jared Polis (D) each called their legislatures into special session to address rising property taxes. In the case of Colorado, Polis negotiated a deal to pull two tax-related ballot measures from November’s ballot in exchange for enacting a bill (CO HB 1001) to limit year-over-year valuation increases and reduce the percentage of property value subject to taxation.
On public safety issues, New York Governor Kathy Hochul (D) made retail theft a major priority for her administration by declaring war on retail thieves in her State of the State address in January. Lawmakers in Albany ended up enacting five key ORC measures in the state’s FY25 budget (SB 8305/AB 8805 and AB 8809/SB 8309), including funding for an ORC Task Force, tax credits for retailers to purchase security cameras, and allowing prosecutors to aggregate the value of multiple thefts.
Governors: States with Elections in 2024
Open governor seats also matter in an era where one party control in states is the norm. Currently, Republicans have trifecta control over 23 states while Democrats control 17 state governments. Ten states, meanwhile, have divided governments with the governor and the legislature being from opposing political parties.
This year, the three incumbent governors running should have no problem keeping their seats. Both Montana Governor Greg Gianforte (R) and Utah Governor Spencer Cox (R) are in safe seats. And Vermont Governor Phil Scott (R) is expected to win reelection easily, as he has boasted the highest approval rating in the country.
The only two governor races this year of real interest are in North Carolina and New Hampshire. The North Carolina seat was expected to be very competitive in a swing state, but scandals have weighed down Lt. Governor Mark Robinson (R), giving Attorney General Josh Stein (D) a significant advantage in the polls. In New Hampshire, former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte (R) is polling strongly against former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig (D) so expect to see a close race.
Trifectas: Pre-Election Partisan Breakdown